Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Lietava Jonava1.08

DFK Dainava1.28

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Lietava Jonava Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLLLW

DFK Dainava 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 3–3 DFK Dainava (6 last)

DFK Dainava3-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava1-0DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava0-1Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava2-3DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava4-1Lietava Jonava
DFK Dainava2-3Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1478 · DFK Dainava 1543

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1478 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.1	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +17’	2.80	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 3–0–3 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	3-0 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
19/09/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-0 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
03/07/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	0-1 HT 0-1	Lietava Jonava
28/09/19 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	2-3 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
12/06/19 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	4-1 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
06/09/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-3 HT 0-3	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	DFK Dainava
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	5-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

DWLLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D

DFK Dainava

WWWWWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an DFK Dainava win (41%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 31%, draw 28%, DFK Dainava 41%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.08 · DFK Dainava 1.28), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.