Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs FK Tauras

Team pages: FK Atmosfera · FK Tauras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

FK Atmosfera1.13

FK Tauras1.24

1X2

33% 28% 39%

FK Atmosfera Draw FK Tauras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FK Tauras 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 0–2–4 FK Tauras (6 last)

FK Tauras2-0FK Atmosfera
FK Tauras1-0FK Atmosfera
FK Tauras0-0FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-1FK Tauras
FK Atmosfera1-2FK Tauras
FK Tauras2-1FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1446 · FK Tauras 1559

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	FK Tauras
Our model	32%	30%	37%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Tauras (rating 1446 vs 1559).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	FK Tauras
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +10’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 0–2–4 FK Tauras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
06/03/26 Club Friendly List	FK Tauras	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
04/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
31/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Tauras
14/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Tauras
27/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	FK Tauras
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 L	0-2 L
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	3-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 L	4-2 W
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Tauras (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Atmosfera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D

FK Tauras

WWWWWDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	1	W
27/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
20/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs FK Tauras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Tauras win (39%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 33%, draw 28%, FK Tauras 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs FK Tauras?

The model expects 2.38 goals (FK Atmosfera 1.13 · FK Tauras 1.24), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs FK Tauras?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.