Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 30/10, 16:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: FK BE1 · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

FK BE11.19

FK Babrungas1.47

1X2

30% 26% 43%

FK BE1 Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDWW

FK Babrungas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK BE1 2–1–3 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas1-0FK BE1
FK Babrungas4-0FK BE1
FK BE11-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas0-0FK BE1
FK BE12-0FK Babrungas
FK BE12-0FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1577 · FK Babrungas 1584

	FK BE1	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	29%	28%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Babrungas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:56 +8’	2.90	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 2–1–3 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 0-0	FK BE1
08/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	4-0 HT 2-0	FK BE1
04/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Babrungas
30/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK BE1
24/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Babrungas
23/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	28	22	4	2	52	13	70
2	FK Minija	27	22	1	4	71	18	67
3	FK BE1	27	18	3	6	49	28	57
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	28	15	4	9	44	36	49
5	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
6	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	28	14	2	12	33	35	44
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Tauras	27	13	5	9	48	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	43	35	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	28	8	6	14	31	38	30
12	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	28	8	2	18	27	48	26
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Siauliai II	28	4	6	18	34	65	18
16	FK Ekranas	28	5	3	20	29	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FK Babrungas
FK Tauras	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	4-0 W
DFK Dainava	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Garliava	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Hegelmann II	2-1 W	4-0 W
FK Minija	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

LWWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
16/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
18/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
14/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L

FK Babrungas

LWDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
17/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (43%). Probabilities: FK BE1 30%, draw 26%, FK Babrungas 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.67 goals (FK BE1 1.19 · FK Babrungas 1.47), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.