Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 18/07, 17:00
Prediction: FK Minija vs Lietava Jonava
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
FK Minija1.89
Lietava Jonava0.57
1X2
FK Minija
Draw
Lietava Jonava
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
FK Minija
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Lietava Jonava
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Minija
2–2–2
Lietava Jonava
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Minija 1568 · Lietava Jonava 1452
| FK Minija | Draw | Lietava Jonava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1568 vs 1452).
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Minija | Lietava Jonava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 8.3 | 1.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 2–2–2 Lietava Jonava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga | Lietava Jonava | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Minija |
| 18/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Minija | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lietava Jonava |
| 13/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga | Lietava Jonava | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Minija |
| 19/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | Lietava Jonava | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FK Minija |
| 01/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga | FK Minija | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Lietava Jonava |
| 24/09/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga | Lietava Jonava | 8-0 HT 3-0 | FK Minija |
Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minija | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 9 | 40 |
| 2 | FK Babrungas | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 39 |
| 3 | FK BE1 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 32 |
| 4 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Tauras | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | DFK Dainava | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 27 |
| 7 | FK Garliava | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | BFA Vilnius | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 22 |
| 9 | FK Atmosfera | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 21 |
| 10 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 11 | Lietava Jonava | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 17 |
| 12 | FK Transinvest II | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Hegelmann II | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 13 |
| 14 | FK Ekranas | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 29 | 7 |
| 15 | FK Kauno Zalgiris II | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 7 |
| 16 | FK Siauliai II | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Minija | Lietava Jonava |
|---|---|---|
| FK Atmosfera | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| BFA Vilnius | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Babrungas | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FK Tauras | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Neptunas Klaipeda | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| DFK Dainava | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Minija (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Minija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Panevezys Lithuania Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | FK Pempininkai Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 15 | 5 | W |
Lietava Jonava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 30/05 | BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 22/05 | FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FK Siauliai Lithuania Cup |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs Lietava Jonava?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (69%). Probabilities: FK Minija 69%, draw 20%, Lietava Jonava 10%.
How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs Lietava Jonava?
The model expects 2.46 goals (FK Minija 1.89 · Lietava Jonava 0.57), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Minija vs Lietava Jonava?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.