Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/07, 17:00

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs FK Ekranas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FK Babrungas2.28

FK Ekranas0.7

1X2

73% 17% 10%

FK Babrungas Draw FK Ekranas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWDWW

FK Ekranas 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 5–1–0 FK Ekranas (6 last)

FK Ekranas0-3FK Babrungas
FK Ekranas0-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas5-1FK Ekranas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1604 · FK Ekranas 1406

	FK Babrungas	Draw	FK Ekranas
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	74%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1604 vs 1406).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	FK Ekranas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.2	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +9’	1.22	5.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 5–1–0 FK Ekranas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
26/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
23/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	5-1 HT 3-1	FK Ekranas
09/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	0-4 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
05/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-2 HT 1-1	FK Ekranas
18/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 1-1	FK Ekranas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Tauras	16	10	1	5	30	17	31
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	16	2	1	13	7	26	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	FK Ekranas
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	1-0 W	2-2 D
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-2 L
BFA Vilnius	4-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

WDWDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
15/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	7	D
01/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	4-0	4	4	W

FK Ekranas

LWDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	1	6	L
02/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
27/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
20/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
05/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	10	L
29/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
22/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
08/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
02/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs FK Ekranas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Babrungas win (73%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 73%, draw 17%, FK Ekranas 10%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs FK Ekranas?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FK Babrungas 2.28 · FK Ekranas 0.7), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs FK Ekranas?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.