Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 26/07, 14:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK BE1

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

BFA Vilnius1.17

FK BE11.57

1X2

28% 26% 46%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK BE1

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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FK BE1 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 1–1–4 FK BE1 (6 last)

FK BE13-1BFA Vilnius
FK BE10-0BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius3-0FK BE1

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1486 · FK BE1 1570

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK BE1
Our model	27%	27%	45%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1486 vs 1570).
H2H favours FK BE1: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK BE1
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.70

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.15 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:25 +2’	2.63	3.60	2.15
13:28 +4’	3.10▲	3.70▲	1.90▼
14:20 +10’	2.63▼	3.60▼	2.15▲
15:27 +2’	3.10▲	3.70▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 1–1–4 FK BE1

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	3-1 HT 1-1	BFA Vilnius
26/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	0-0 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
24/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-0 HT 1-0	FK BE1
14/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-1	FK BE1
26/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-0 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
16/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-1	FK BE1

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK BE1
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-3 W	2-1 W
FK Atmosfera	0-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK BE1 (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
23/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
22/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-3	6	5	W
19/05	FK Garliava Lithuania Cup	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	2	L

FK BE1

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
08/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W
02/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
28/04	FM Klaipedos Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK BE1?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK BE1 win (46%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 28%, draw 26%, FK BE1 46%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK BE1?

The model expects 2.75 goals (BFA Vilnius 1.17 · FK BE1 1.57), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK BE1?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.