Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/07, 17:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Transinvest II

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Transinvest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

DFK Dainava2.67

FK Transinvest II0.97

1X2

73% 16% 11%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Transinvest II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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FK Transinvest II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 0–1–0 FK Transinvest II (1 last)

FK Transinvest II3-3DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1557 · FK Transinvest II 1425

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Transinvest II
Our model	73%	17%	11%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1557 vs 1425).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Transinvest II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 5.75▼	Pinn 5.97
2	10.00 → 8.00▼	Pinn 8.63 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +6’	1.17	6.50	10.00
02:01 +2’	1.25▲	5.50▼	8.00▼
08:59 +1’	1.25	5.50	7.50▼
12:00 +1’	1.22▼	5.75▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +1’	1.22	5.45	7.91
07:00	1.19▼	5.77▲	8.59▲
12:01	1.18▼	5.97▲	8.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 0–1–0 FK Transinvest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Transinvest II	3-3 HT 1-2	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Transinvest II
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 W	2-2 D
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	0-1 L
FK Garliava	1-0 W	0-3 L
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	0-4 L
FK BE1	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Hegelmann II	3-2 W	2-1 W
FK Minija	1-3 L	1-7 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

DFK Dainava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	6	W
22/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-0	6	9	W
15/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	9	0	W
09/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-3	6	5	L

FK Transinvest II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
27/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
14/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
10/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
15/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
03/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-7	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Transinvest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DFK Dainava win (73%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 73%, draw 16%, FK Transinvest II 11%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Transinvest II?

The model expects 3.64 goals (DFK Dainava 2.67 · FK Transinvest II 0.97), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Transinvest II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.