Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Siauliai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda2.5

FK Siauliai II0.81

1X2

74% 16% 10%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw FK Siauliai II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWLD

FK Siauliai II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5–1–0 FK Siauliai II (6 last)

FK Siauliai II0-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Siauliai II2-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda5-1FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1550 · FK Siauliai II 1423

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	FK Siauliai II
Our model	73%	17%	9%
Market	75%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda (rating 1550 vs 1423).
H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Siauliai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +9’	1.20	6.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5–1–0 FK Siauliai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
22/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	2-3 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
07/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	5-1 HT 3-0	FK Siauliai II
23/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II
29/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
20/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	3-0 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Tauras	16	10	1	5	30	17	31
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	16	2	1	13	7	26	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Siauliai II
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	1-2 L
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	0-5 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-2 D
FK BE1	1-0 W	2-5 L
FC Hegelmann II	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Neptunas Klaipeda (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WWLWWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
30/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
22/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	8	4	W
16/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	4	1	W

FK Siauliai II

WLDLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	3	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
24/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
08/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	2-5	1	2	L
03/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Siauliai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (74%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 74%, draw 16%, FK Siauliai II 10%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Siauliai II?

The model expects 3.31 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 2.5 · FK Siauliai II 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Siauliai II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.