Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/07, 14:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FK Atmosfera2.24

FC Hegelmann II0.98

1X2

66% 19% 15%

FK Atmosfera Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDLWL

FC Hegelmann II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWLL

Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 3–2–1 FC Hegelmann II (6 last)

FC Hegelmann II0-3FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera2-2FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II1-1FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1498 · FC Hegelmann II 1414

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	66%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1498 vs 1414).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.36▲	Bet365 1.36
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	7.50 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +7’	1.25	5.50	7.50
13:02 +12’	1.36▲	5.00▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 3–2–1 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Atmosfera
27/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
16/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
31/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Hegelmann II
07/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	3-0 HT 3-0	FK Atmosfera
28/10/23 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-1	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Tauras	16	10	1	5	30	17	31
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	16	2	1	13	7	26	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	FC Hegelmann II
Lietava Jonava	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-0 W	0-2 L
BFA Vilnius	5-0 W	1-0 W
FK Babrungas	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Tauras	0-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Atmosfera (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Atmosfera

LDWLDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
23/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/05	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	1	2	W
09/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
02/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

FC Hegelmann II

LLLLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L
15/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	0	0	L
11/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
03/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atmosfera win (66%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 66%, draw 19%, FC Hegelmann II 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FK Atmosfera 2.24 · FC Hegelmann II 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.