Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Lietava Jonava1.15

FK Garliava1.21

1X2

35% 28% 38%

Lietava Jonava Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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FK Garliava 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 1–1–1 FK Garliava (3 last)

FK Garliava2-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava2-1FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-1Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1440 · FK Garliava 1500

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Garliava (rating 1440 vs 1500).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +10’	2.50	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 1–1–1 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-0 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
01/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Garliava
15/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-1 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Tauras	16	10	1	5	30	17	31
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	16	2	1	13	7	26	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	FK Garliava
FK Minija	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-1 D
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	1-2 L
DFK Dainava	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lietava Jonava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
07/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
22/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
08/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
02/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

FK Garliava

WWWLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
15/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
09/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
02/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Garliava win (38%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 35%, draw 28%, FK Garliava 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.15 · FK Garliava 1.21), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.