Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 19/07, 17:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.42

FK Babrungas1.74

1X2

9% 20% 71%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLDL

FK Babrungas 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0–2–4 FK Babrungas (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1435 · FK Babrungas 1576

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	7%	23%	69%
Market	10%	18%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1435 vs 1576).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 1.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +4’	9.00	5.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0–2–4 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
18/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
12/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
09/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
16/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Babrungas
31/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	15	13	1	1	39	9	40
2	FK Babrungas	15	12	3	0	26	4	39
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	15	9	1	5	20	17	28
5	FK Tauras	15	9	1	5	27	16	28
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
8	BFA Vilnius	15	7	1	7	18	24	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	15	5	3	7	21	25	18
11	Lietava Jonava	15	4	5	6	18	20	17
12	FK Transinvest II	15	4	2	9	13	36	14
13	FC Hegelmann II	15	4	1	10	16	32	13
14	FK Ekranas	15	2	1	12	15	29	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	15	2	1	12	7	24	7
16	FK Siauliai II	15	1	4	10	13	35	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Babrungas
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	4-0 W
FK Siauliai II	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK BE1	0-1 L	1-0 W
FC Hegelmann II	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLLLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
24/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
15/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
08/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
02/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
24/04	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

FK Babrungas

LWDWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
15/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	7	D
01/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	4-0	4	4	W
28/04	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (71%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 9%, draw 20%, FK Babrungas 71%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.16 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.42 · FK Babrungas 1.74), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.