Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0.85

FK Minija2.19

1X2

13% 20% 67%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FK Minija 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–5 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-1FK Minija
FK Minija1-4FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-3FK Minija
FK Minija3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-3FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1450 · FK Minija 1631

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	12%	21%	67%
Market	13%	20%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1450 vs 1631).
H2H favours FK Minija: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.4	3.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
X	4.60 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.50 ★
2	1.40 → 1.36▼	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +2’	5.50	4.60	1.40
17:00 +5’	7.50▲	4.75▲	1.30▼
07:59 +2’	6.50▼	4.33▼	1.36▲
13:59 +2’	7.00▲	4.50▲	1.33▼
14:57 +4’	6.50▼	4.33▼	1.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:00	6.25	4.70	1.33
11:01	6.20▼	4.64▼	1.33▲
12:01 +1’	6.09▼	4.57▼	1.34▲
14:01	5.94▼	4.50▼	1.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–0–5 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	4-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
24/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
17/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-4 HT 1-2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
15/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-3 HT 0-2	FK Minija
27/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
05/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Minija
Lietava Jonava	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Garliava	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Atmosfera	0-2 L	1-0 W
BFA Vilnius	3-4 L	3-0 W
FK Babrungas	0-3 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-2 D	2-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
22/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-4	6	5	L
15/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
08/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	3	8	D
02/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	5	1	L

FK Minija

WDWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
23/06	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-1	4	10	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
23/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
19/05	FK Pempininkai Lithuania Cup	0-0	1-1	13	6	D
16/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (67%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 13%, draw 20%, FK Minija 67%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Minija?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 0.85 · FK Minija 2.19), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.