Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 19/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Ekranas vs BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

FK Ekranas1.26

BFA Vilnius1.71

1X2

28% 25% 47%

FK Ekranas Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ekranas 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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BFA Vilnius 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Ekranas 1–2–3 BFA Vilnius (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ekranas 1433 · BFA Vilnius 1493

	FK Ekranas	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1433 vs 1493).
H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ekranas	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.70

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +18’	2.80	3.60	2.10
00:11 +6’	3.25▲	3.70▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ekranas 1–2–3 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Ekranas
23/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Ekranas
09/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	0-2 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
04/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-1 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
09/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Ekranas
12/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-0 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	15	13	1	1	39	9	40
2	FK Babrungas	15	12	3	0	26	4	39
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	15	9	1	5	20	17	28
5	FK Tauras	15	9	1	5	27	16	28
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
8	BFA Vilnius	15	7	1	7	18	24	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	15	5	3	7	21	25	18
11	Lietava Jonava	15	4	5	6	18	20	17
12	FK Transinvest II	15	4	2	9	13	36	14
13	FC Hegelmann II	15	4	1	10	16	32	13
14	FK Ekranas	15	2	1	12	15	29	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	15	2	1	12	7	24	7
16	FK Siauliai II	15	1	4	10	13	35	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ekranas	BFA Vilnius
FK Atmosfera	1-2 L	0-5 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Garliava	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Ekranas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
27/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
20/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
05/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	10	L
29/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
22/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
08/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
02/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
24/04	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	1	5	L

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
23/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
22/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-3	6	5	W
19/05	FK Garliava Lithuania Cup	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	2	L
09/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ekranas vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFA Vilnius win (47%). Probabilities: FK Ekranas 28%, draw 25%, BFA Vilnius 47%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ekranas vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 2.96 goals (FK Ekranas 1.26 · BFA Vilnius 1.71), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ekranas vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.