Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 21/07, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

FC Hegelmann II1.52

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.67

1X2

34% 25% 41%

FC Hegelmann II Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWWL

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 0–1–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1450 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1455

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +4’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 0–1–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
26/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
26/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-3 HT 3-1	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	15	12	3	0	26	4	39
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	15	9	1	5	20	17	28
5	FK Tauras	15	9	1	5	27	16	28
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
8	BFA Vilnius	15	7	1	7	18	24	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	15	5	3	7	21	25	18
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	15	4	2	9	13	36	14
13	FC Hegelmann II	15	4	1	10	16	32	13
14	FK Ekranas	15	2	1	12	15	29	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	15	2	1	12	7	24	7
16	FK Siauliai II	15	1	4	10	13	35	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	1-2 L
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	3-4 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-3 L
FK Tauras	1-6 L	2-2 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-3 L	1-2 L
DFK Dainava	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Hegelmann II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L
15/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	0	0	L
11/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
03/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
24/04	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

DLDLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
22/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-4	6	5	L
15/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
08/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	3	8	D
02/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
24/04	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zalgiris Vilnius II win (41%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 34%, draw 25%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 3.19 goals (FC Hegelmann II 1.52 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.67), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.