Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs FK Minija

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

FC Hegelmann II0.63

FK Minija2.63

1X2

6% 12% 82%

FC Hegelmann II Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWLLL

FK Minija 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 1–4 FK Minija (5 last)

FK Minija3-0FC Hegelmann II
FK Minija2-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II0-1FK Minija
FC Hegelmann II1-0FK Minija
FK Minija3-2FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1405 · FK Minija 1632

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	6%	15%	79%
Market	5%	10%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1405 vs 1632).
H2H favours FK Minija: 4-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.5	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	3.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

117.00

X9.00

21.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.82

2 (-2.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +1’	17.00	9.00	1.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 1–0–4 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Hegelmann II
19/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
18/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
20/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Minija
01/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-2 HT 2-0	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	FK Minija
FK Atmosfera	1-4 L	1-0 W
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	1-6 L	2-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Hegelmann II

LLLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L
15/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	0	0	L
11/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L

FK Minija

WDWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
23/06	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-1	4	10	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
23/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
19/05	FK Pempininkai Lithuania Cup	0-0	1-1	13	6	D
16/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (82%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 6%, draw 12%, FK Minija 82%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Minija?

The model expects 3.26 goals (FC Hegelmann II 0.63 · FK Minija 2.63), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.