Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 02/10, 18:30

Prediction: FK Garliava vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FK Garliava · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

FK Garliava1.09

DFK Dainava1.2

1X2

33% 28% 39%

FK Garliava Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

DFK Dainava 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDLDLW

Head-to-head

FK Garliava 0–3 DFK Dainava (3 last)

DFK Dainava1-0FK Garliava
DFK Dainava2-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-2DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1377 · DFK Dainava 1513

	FK Garliava	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	32%	31%	37%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1377 vs 1513).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 12:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.45 ★
X	3.50 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.25 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:53 +14’	2.60	3.50	2.25
22:24 +4’	2.90▲	3.50	2.05▼
23:20 +4’	3.40▲	3.60▲	1.83▼
08:08 +4’	3.00▼	3.50▼	2.10▲
11:11 +3’	3.00	3.70▲	2.05▼
12:50 +6’	3.30▲	3.90▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:42 +33’	3.06	3.15	2.03
09:03 +3’	3.09▲	3.38▲	1.97▼
09:25 +42’	3.08▼	3.45▲	1.96▼
10:34 +39’	3.05▼	3.54▲	1.94▼
12:55 +1’	3.42▲	3.68▲	1.78▼
14:33 +18’	3.42	3.53▼	1.82▲
16:37 +63’	3.45▲	3.67▲	1.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 7 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 0–0–3 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
05/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Garliava
26/03/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-2 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	DFK Dainava
BFA Vilnius	2-3 L	0-0 D
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Tauras	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Hegelmann II	1-3 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	1-0 W
Lietava Jonava	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Minija	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Garliava

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L

DFK Dainava

WWDWDDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an DFK Dainava win (39%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 33%, draw 28%, DFK Dainava 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 2.29 goals (FK Garliava 1.09 · DFK Dainava 1.2), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.