Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/11, 16:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK BE1 · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

FK BE11.74

FK Atmosfera1.18

1X2

50% 25% 25%

FK BE1 Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWD

FK Atmosfera 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

FK BE1 4–2 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera0-1FK BE1
FK BE11-3FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera2-4FK BE1
FK Atmosfera1-0FK BE1
FK BE13-0FK Atmosfera
FK BE12-0FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1602 · FK Atmosfera 1488

	FK BE1	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1602 vs 1488).
H2H favours FK BE1: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +23’	1.80	3.75	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +19’	1.70	3.71	3.81
08:00 +2’	1.69▼	3.75▲	3.81
14:55 +6’	1.72▲	3.74▼	3.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 4–0–2 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-1 HT 0-1	FK BE1
14/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-3 HT 1-1	FK Atmosfera
10/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-4 HT 2-3	FK BE1
17/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-0 HT 1-0	FK BE1
26/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
15/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
6	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
7	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FK Atmosfera
FK Babrungas	1-1 D	2-3 L
FK Tauras	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	1-3 L
DFK Dainava	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Garliava	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK BE1 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

WWWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
24/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
16/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
18/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
14/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

FK Atmosfera

LDLWLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
24/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
17/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
10/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (50%). Probabilities: FK BE1 50%, draw 25%, FK Atmosfera 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.92 goals (FK BE1 1.74 · FK Atmosfera 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.