Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 24/07, 16:00

Prediction: FK Tauras vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

FK Tauras2.03

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.84

1X2

65% 20% 15%

FK Tauras Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tauras 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWWW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Tauras 5–1 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tauras 1585 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1417

	FK Tauras	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	66%	18%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Tauras (rating 1585 vs 1417).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tauras	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +4’	1.36	5.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tauras 5–0–1 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Tauras
31/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
21/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
13/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Tauras
26/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	5-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
29/10/22 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Tauras	0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
2	FK Babrungas	16	13	3	0	28	4	42
3	FK BE1	15	10	2	3	28	15	32
4	FK Tauras	16	10	1	5	30	17	31
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	16	9	2	5	22	19	29
6	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
7	BFA Vilnius	16	8	1	7	22	25	25
8	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
9	FK Atmosfera	15	6	3	6	23	17	21
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	16	4	5	7	19	22	17
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	16	4	1	11	16	34	13
14	FK Ekranas	16	2	1	13	16	33	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	16	2	1	13	7	26	7
16	FK Siauliai II	16	1	4	11	14	38	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tauras	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Siauliai II	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK BE1	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Tauras (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tauras

WDWLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
20/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
30/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	6-1	4	0	W
23/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
16/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
08/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	7	8	D
02/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLLWWLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
24/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
15/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
08/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
02/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tauras vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Tauras win (65%). Probabilities: FK Tauras 65%, draw 20%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tauras vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 2.86 goals (FK Tauras 2.03 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tauras vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.