Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 02/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

FK Siauliai II1.21

BFA Vilnius2.17

1X2

20% 22% 58%

FK Siauliai II Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLLLL

BFA Vilnius 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 1–5 BFA Vilnius (6 last)

BFA Vilnius1-0FK Siauliai II
BFA Vilnius5-1FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-4BFA Vilnius
FK Siauliai II1-3BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius7-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II4-2BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1391 · BFA Vilnius 1533

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1391 vs 1533).
H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.6	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	3.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +8’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 1–0–5 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai II
23/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	5-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II
27/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-4 HT 0-4	BFA Vilnius
03/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-3 HT 1-1	BFA Vilnius
16/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	7-0 HT 3-0	FK Siauliai II
05/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	4-2 HT 2-1	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	BFA Vilnius
FK Garliava	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	2-2 D	4-1 W
FK BE1	2-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Siauliai II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	3	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
24/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
08/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	2-5	1	2	L

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
23/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
22/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-3	6	5	W
19/05	FK Garliava Lithuania Cup	1-1	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFA Vilnius win (58%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 20%, draw 22%, BFA Vilnius 58%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 3.38 goals (FK Siauliai II 1.21 · BFA Vilnius 2.17), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.