Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 01/08, 13:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris II · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.87

FK Atmosfera1.7

1X2

19% 24% 57%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDLLL

FK Atmosfera 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0–1–5 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera2-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-3FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-1FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-3FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1426 · FK Atmosfera 1515

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	18%	26%	56%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1426 vs 1515).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +14’	4.50	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0–1–5 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
22/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Atmosfera
07/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
28/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Atmosfera
11/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
03/08/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Atmosfera
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	1-1 D
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	5-0 W
FK Garliava	0-3 L	1-1 D
FK Ekranas	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Atmosfera (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLWWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
24/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
15/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
08/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L

FK Atmosfera

DWLDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
23/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/05	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	1	2	W
09/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Atmosfera win (57%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 19%, draw 24%, FK Atmosfera 57%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.57 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.87 · FK Atmosfera 1.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.