Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 01/08, 12:00

Prediction: FK Garliava vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: FK Garliava · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Garliava1.32

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.32

1X2

36% 27% 36%

FK Garliava Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FK Neptunas Klaipeda 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Garliava 2–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-3FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-2FK Garliava
FK Garliava2-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1490 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1545

	FK Garliava	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda (rating 1490 vs 1545).
H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +2’	2.45	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 2–0–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Garliava
14/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
26/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Garliava
25/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
07/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
10/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-3 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	17	14	3	0	30	4	45
2	FK Minija	16	14	1	1	41	10	43
3	FK Tauras	17	11	1	5	34	19	34
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	17	10	2	5	24	20	32
5	FK BE1	16	10	2	4	29	18	32
6	BFA Vilnius	17	9	1	7	25	26	28
7	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
8	FK Atmosfera	16	7	3	6	27	18	24
9	FK Garliava	16	6	4	6	22	15	22
10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	16	6	3	7	23	25	21
11	Lietava Jonava	17	5	5	7	20	22	20
12	FK Transinvest II	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	17	4	1	12	17	38	13
14	FK Ekranas	17	2	1	14	16	35	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	17	2	1	14	9	30	7
16	FK Siauliai II	17	1	4	12	15	40	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Lietava Jonava	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Minija	0-1 L	1-3 L
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	2-2 D
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Garliava (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Garliava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
15/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
09/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
30/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
22/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	8	4	W
16/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Garliava win (36%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 36%, draw 27%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Garliava 1.32 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.32), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.