Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs FK Garliava

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

FC Hegelmann II0.86

FK Garliava1.86

1X2

17% 22% 61%

FC Hegelmann II Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLLL

FK Garliava 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 0–2–2 FK Garliava (4 last)

FK Garliava1-1FC Hegelmann II
FK Garliava2-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II1-1FK Garliava
FC Hegelmann II0-5FK Garliava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1420 · FK Garliava 1453

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	16%	24%	60%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Garliava: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.50 → 1.45▼	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +3’	4.50	4.50	1.50
14:20 +8’	5.00▲	4.50	1.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 0–2–2 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
11/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II
26/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
12/05/21 Lithuania II Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-5	FK Garliava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	18	15	3	0	31	4	48
2	FK Minija	18	15	1	2	45	11	46
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	18	11	2	5	25	20	35
4	FK Tauras	18	11	2	5	35	20	35
5	FK BE1	17	10	2	5	29	20	32
6	DFK Dainava	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
7	BFA Vilnius	18	9	1	8	25	27	28
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	18	7	4	7	25	26	25
9	FK Atmosfera	17	7	3	7	28	21	24
10	Lietava Jonava	18	6	5	7	22	22	23
11	FK Garliava	17	6	4	7	22	16	22
12	FK Transinvest II	18	4	3	11	16	42	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	18	4	1	13	17	42	13
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	18	3	1	14	12	31	10
15	FK Siauliai II	18	2	4	12	16	40	10
16	FK Ekranas	18	2	2	14	17	36	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	FK Garliava
FK Minija	0-4 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-4 L	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 L	1-2 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	0-1 L
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-3 L	0-1 L
DFK Dainava	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Garliava (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Hegelmann II

LLLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L
15/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	0	0	L

FK Garliava

WLDDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
15/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Garliava win (61%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 17%, draw 22%, FK Garliava 61%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 2.73 goals (FC Hegelmann II 0.86 · FK Garliava 1.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.