Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs FK Siauliai II

Team pages: FK Atmosfera · FK Siauliai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

FK Atmosfera2.49

FK Siauliai II1.21

1X2

65% 19% 16%

FK Atmosfera Draw FK Siauliai II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLWLWL

FK Siauliai II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 5–1 FK Siauliai II (6 last)

FK Siauliai II1-4FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera4-1FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II1-2FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera2-3FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II2-5FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera2-1FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1512 · FK Siauliai II 1403

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	FK Siauliai II
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	65%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1512 vs 1403).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	FK Siauliai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +13’	1.38	4.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 5–0–1 FK Siauliai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-4 HT 1-2	FK Atmosfera
09/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	4-1 HT 3-0	FK Siauliai II
06/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Atmosfera
05/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-3 HT 2-1	FK Siauliai II
19/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	2-5 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
12/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	18	15	3	0	31	4	48
2	FK Minija	18	15	1	2	45	11	46
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	18	11	2	5	25	20	35
4	FK Tauras	18	11	2	5	35	20	35
5	FK BE1	17	10	2	5	29	20	32
6	DFK Dainava	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
7	BFA Vilnius	18	9	1	8	25	27	28
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	18	7	4	7	25	26	25
9	FK Atmosfera	17	7	3	7	28	21	24
10	Lietava Jonava	18	6	5	7	22	22	23
11	FK Garliava	17	6	4	7	22	16	22
12	FK Transinvest II	18	4	3	11	16	42	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	18	4	1	13	17	42	13
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	18	3	1	14	12	31	10
15	FK Siauliai II	18	2	4	12	16	40	10
16	FK Ekranas	18	2	2	14	17	36	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	FK Siauliai II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 L	0-2 L
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-2 D
FK Garliava	1-1 D	1-1 D
BFA Vilnius	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Atmosfera (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Atmosfera

WLDWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
23/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/05	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	1	2	W

FK Siauliai II

DLDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	3	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
24/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs FK Siauliai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atmosfera win (65%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 65%, draw 19%, FK Siauliai II 16%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs FK Siauliai II?

The model expects 3.7 goals (FK Atmosfera 2.49 · FK Siauliai II 1.21), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs FK Siauliai II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.