Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Transinvest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

BFA Vilnius2.1

FK Transinvest II0.85

1X2

66% 20% 14%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Transinvest II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Transinvest II 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 0–1 FK Transinvest II (1 last)

FK Transinvest II1-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1505 · FK Transinvest II 1426

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Transinvest II
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1505 vs 1426).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Transinvest II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	1.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +13’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 0–0–1 FK Transinvest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Transinvest II	1-0 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	18	15	3	0	31	4	48
2	FK Minija	18	15	1	2	45	11	46
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	18	11	2	5	25	20	35
4	FK Tauras	18	11	2	5	35	20	35
5	FK BE1	17	10	2	5	29	20	32
6	DFK Dainava	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
7	BFA Vilnius	18	9	1	8	25	27	28
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	18	7	4	7	25	26	25
9	FK Atmosfera	17	7	3	7	28	21	24
10	Lietava Jonava	18	6	5	7	22	22	23
11	FK Garliava	17	6	4	7	22	16	22
12	FK Transinvest II	18	4	3	11	16	42	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	18	4	1	13	17	42	13
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	18	3	1	14	12	31	10
15	FK Siauliai II	18	2	4	12	16	40	10
16	FK Ekranas	18	2	2	14	17	36	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Transinvest II
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK BE1	3-1 W	0-2 L
FK Ekranas	4-1 W	0-4 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
23/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
22/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-3	6	5	W

FK Transinvest II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
28/07	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
20/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
27/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
14/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
10/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
15/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BFA Vilnius win (66%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 66%, draw 20%, FK Transinvest II 14%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II?

The model expects 2.95 goals (BFA Vilnius 2.1 · FK Transinvest II 0.85), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.