Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK BE1

Team pages: FK Minija · FK BE1

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

FK Minija1.9

FK BE10.92

1X2

60% 23% 17%

FK Minija Draw FK BE1

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWWLW

FK BE1 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWLL

Head-to-head

FK Minija 2–2–2 FK BE1 (6 last)

FK BE12-3FK Minija
FK Minija0-3FK BE1
FK BE11-1FK Minija
FK BE15-0FK Minija
FK Minija1-1FK BE1
FK Minija2-1FK BE1

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1575 · FK BE1 1521

	FK Minija	Draw	FK BE1
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1575 vs 1521).
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK BE1
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.8	3.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +20’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 2–2–2 FK BE1

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-3 HT 1-1	FK Minija
09/11/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-3 HT 0-0	FK BE1
27/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Minija
04/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	5-0 HT 2-0	FK Minija
18/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-1 HT 1-0	FK BE1
29/07/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-1 HT 2-0	FK BE1

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	18	15	3	0	31	4	48
2	FK Minija	18	15	1	2	45	11	46
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	18	11	2	5	25	20	35
4	FK Tauras	18	11	2	5	35	20	35
5	FK BE1	17	10	2	5	29	20	32
6	DFK Dainava	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
7	BFA Vilnius	18	9	1	8	25	27	28
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	18	7	4	7	25	26	25
9	FK Atmosfera	17	7	3	7	28	21	24
10	Lietava Jonava	18	6	5	7	22	22	23
11	FK Garliava	17	6	4	7	22	16	22
12	FK Transinvest II	18	4	3	11	16	42	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	18	4	1	13	17	42	13
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	18	3	1	14	12	31	10
15	FK Siauliai II	18	2	4	12	16	40	10
16	FK Ekranas	18	2	2	14	17	36	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK BE1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	2-1 W
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	1-0 W
BFA Vilnius	3-0 W	1-3 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Minija

WLDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
23/06	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-1	4	10	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
23/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	10	4	W

FK BE1

WWWLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
08/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK BE1?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (60%). Probabilities: FK Minija 60%, draw 23%, FK BE1 17%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK BE1?

The model expects 2.82 goals (FK Minija 1.9 · FK BE1 0.92), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK BE1?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.