Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: FK BE1 · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

FK BE12.1

FC Hegelmann II1.09

1X2

60% 21% 19%

FK BE1 Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLLL

FC Hegelmann II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

FK BE1 4–2 FC Hegelmann II (6 last)

FC Hegelmann II0-3FK BE1
FK BE11-3FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II1-2FK BE1
FK BE12-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II1-3FK BE1
FK BE10-1FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1502 · FC Hegelmann II 1441

	FK BE1	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1502 vs 1441).
H2H favours FK BE1: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:50 +2’	1.50	4.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 4–0–2 FC Hegelmann II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-3 HT 0-1	FK BE1
17/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
13/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-2 HT 1-1	FK BE1
04/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II
07/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-3 HT 0-2	FK BE1
15/05/21 Lithuania II Lyga	FK BE1	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	19	16	1	2	48	11	49
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
5	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
6	FK BE1	18	10	2	6	29	23	32
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	19	8	4	7	27	27	28
9	FK Atmosfera	18	7	4	7	29	22	25
10	Lietava Jonava	19	6	5	8	23	24	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	19	5	1	13	20	43	16
13	FK Transinvest II	19	4	3	12	18	46	15
14	FK Ekranas	19	3	2	14	19	37	11
15	FK Siauliai II	19	2	5	12	17	41	11
16	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	19	3	1	15	13	33	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FC Hegelmann II
FK Minija	0-3 L	0-4 L
Lietava Jonava	0-2 L	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	1-3 L	1-0 W
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	1-0 W	1-6 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK BE1 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

WWLWLWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	11	2	W

FC Hegelmann II

LLLWWLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (60%). Probabilities: FK BE1 60%, draw 21%, FC Hegelmann II 19%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.2 goals (FK BE1 2.1 · FC Hegelmann II 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.