Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

BFA Vilnius1.57

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.33

1X2

42% 26% 32%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWLWD

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWWWL

Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 1–2–3 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-3BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius1-5FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius0-5FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-2BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius2-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1522 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1549

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.11
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +8’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:29 +12’	2.08	3.36	2.89
10:31 +12’	2.11▲	3.33▼	2.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 1–2–3 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
18/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-5 HT 1-3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
13/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
30/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-5 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
05/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-2 HT 1-1	BFA Vilnius
30/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	4-2 W	2-2 D
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK BE1	3-1 W	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	4-1 W	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

WLLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WWWWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
30/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BFA Vilnius win (42%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 42%, draw 26%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 32%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.9 goals (BFA Vilnius 1.57 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.