Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs FK Ekranas

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · FK Ekranas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

FC Hegelmann II1.8

FK Ekranas1.52

1X2

44% 24% 32%

FC Hegelmann II Draw FK Ekranas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Ekranas 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 3–3 FK Ekranas (6 last)

FK Ekranas1-3FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II4-1FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas1-2FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II0-2FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas3-1FC Hegelmann II
FK Ekranas4-2FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1454 · FK Ekranas 1410

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	FK Ekranas
Our model	44%	25%	32%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Hegelmann II (rating 1454 vs 1410).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	FK Ekranas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	0.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +5’	2.05	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 3–0–3 FK Ekranas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
01/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	4-1 HT 3-0	FK Ekranas
30/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
04/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Ekranas
19/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
03/04/21 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Ekranas	4-2	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	20	16	3	1	36	6	51
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
4	FK Tauras	20	12	2	6	36	22	38
5	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	19	6	4	9	23	20	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	FK Ekranas
FK Minija	0-4 L	0-5 L
FK Atmosfera	1-4 L	1-2 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 L	1-1 D
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-2 L
FK Tauras	1-6 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L

FK Ekranas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
07/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
01/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
25/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	1	6	L
02/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
27/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
20/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
05/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	10	L
29/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Ekranas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hegelmann II win (44%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 44%, draw 24%, FK Ekranas 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Ekranas?

The model expects 3.32 goals (FC Hegelmann II 1.8 · FK Ekranas 1.52), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Ekranas?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.