Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

DFK Dainava1.44

FK Atmosfera1.04

1X2

46% 27% 27%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDWD

FK Atmosfera 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLWLDL

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 6–0 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera0-2DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava5-0FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-3DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava3-0FK Atmosfera
DFK Dainava2-1FK Atmosfera
DFK Dainava9-1FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1574 · FK Atmosfera 1465

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1574 vs 1465).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +8’	1.91	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:29 +12’	1.85	3.47	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 6–0–0 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-2 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
30/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	5-0 HT 4-0	FK Atmosfera
28/05/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-3 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
30/06/20 Lithuania Cup	DFK Dainava	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
06/06/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
28/07/19 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	9-1 HT 5-1	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Atmosfera
FK Transinvest II	3-1 W	0-2 L
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	1-1 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	1-3 L
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK BE1	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DFK Dainava

LWWWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	6	W
22/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

FK Atmosfera

DWDLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
23/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DFK Dainava win (46%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 46%, draw 27%, FK Atmosfera 27%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.47 goals (DFK Dainava 1.44 · FK Atmosfera 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.