Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs FK Siauliai II

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · FK Siauliai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Lietava Jonava1.96

FK Siauliai II0.96

1X2

60% 22% 17%

Lietava Jonava Draw FK Siauliai II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLWWLL

FK Siauliai II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 2–1–2 FK Siauliai II (5 last)

FK Siauliai II2-2Lietava Jonava
FK Siauliai II0-3Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava3-1FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II3-2Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-2FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1494 · FK Siauliai II 1418

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	FK Siauliai II
Our model	60%	24%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lietava Jonava (rating 1494 vs 1418).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	FK Siauliai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +5’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 2–1–2 FK Siauliai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	2-2 HT 2-1	Lietava Jonava
26/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-3 HT 0-1	Lietava Jonava
24/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	3-1 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai II
26/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	3-2 HT 1-1	Lietava Jonava
07/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	20	16	3	1	36	6	51
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
4	FK Tauras	20	12	2	6	36	22	38
5	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	19	6	4	9	23	20	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	FK Siauliai II
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	1-4 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-1 D
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lietava Jonava (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

LDDWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
07/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L

FK Siauliai II

DLLLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	3	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs FK Siauliai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lietava Jonava win (60%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 60%, draw 22%, FK Siauliai II 17%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs FK Siauliai II?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.96 · FK Siauliai II 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs FK Siauliai II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.