Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

FK Siauliai II1.39

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.7

1X2

31% 25% 44%

FK Siauliai II Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLWD

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 1–1–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II4-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II1-4FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-1FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II3-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1414 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1534

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (rating 1414 vs 1534).
H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	1.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +1’	2.88	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 1–1–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-0 HT 2-0	FK Siauliai II
19/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-4 HT 0-3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
14/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai II
23/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
05/06/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Siauliai II
25/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	19	16	1	2	48	11	49
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
5	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
6	FK BE1	18	10	2	6	29	23	32
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	19	8	4	7	27	27	28
9	FK Atmosfera	18	7	4	7	29	22	25
10	Lietava Jonava	19	6	5	8	23	24	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	19	5	1	13	20	43	16
13	FK Transinvest II	19	4	3	12	18	46	15
14	FK Ekranas	19	3	2	14	19	37	11
15	FK Siauliai II	19	2	5	12	17	41	11
16	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	19	3	1	15	13	33	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	0-2 L
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	3-4 L
FK Garliava	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai II

LDLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	3	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
24/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

LLWLLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
22/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-4	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zalgiris Vilnius II win (44%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 31%, draw 25%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 44%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 3.09 goals (FK Siauliai II 1.39 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.7), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.