Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs FK Siauliai II

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · FK Siauliai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

FC Hegelmann II1.65

FK Siauliai II1.36

1X2

44% 25% 31%

FC Hegelmann II Draw FK Siauliai II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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FK Siauliai II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 2–1–3 FK Siauliai II (6 last)

FK Siauliai II2-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II0-2FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II1-1FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II4-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II4-1FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II5-1FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1439 · FK Siauliai II 1461

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	FK Siauliai II
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Siauliai II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	FK Siauliai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +7’	2.00	3.75	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 2–1–3 FK Siauliai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II
12/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Siauliai II
09/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
23/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	4-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II
05/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	4-1 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II
09/04/21 Lithuania II Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	5-1	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	FK Siauliai II
FK Minija	0-4 L	1-2 L
FK Atmosfera	1-4 L	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 L	1-4 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	1-0 W
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Siauliai II (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

FK Siauliai II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	1	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Siauliai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hegelmann II win (44%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 44%, draw 25%, FK Siauliai II 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Siauliai II?

The model expects 3.01 goals (FC Hegelmann II 1.65 · FK Siauliai II 1.36), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs FK Siauliai II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.