Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/08, 15:00

Prediction: FK Tauras vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: FK Tauras · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FK Tauras1.71

BFA Vilnius1.2

1X2

49% 25% 26%

FK Tauras Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tauras 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDLWD

BFA Vilnius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

FK Tauras 2–1–2 BFA Vilnius (5 last)

BFA Vilnius3-1FK Tauras
FK Tauras2-3BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius2-2FK Tauras
BFA Vilnius0-1FK Tauras
FK Tauras4-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tauras 1528 · BFA Vilnius 1546

	FK Tauras	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tauras	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +3’	1.83	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tauras 2–1–2 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Tauras
25/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-3 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
18/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Tauras
08/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
22/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	4-0 HT 2-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tauras	BFA Vilnius
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	4-2 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	3-1 W	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	4-2 W
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	4-1 W
FK BE1	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tauras

LWWWWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	1	W
27/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
20/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

BFA Vilnius

LLWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tauras vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Tauras win (49%). Probabilities: FK Tauras 49%, draw 25%, BFA Vilnius 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tauras vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FK Tauras 1.71 · BFA Vilnius 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tauras vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.