Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

DFK Dainava1.58

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0.96

1X2

52% 26% 23%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 2–2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-0DFK Dainava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II3-2DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava2-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-3DFK Dainava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-2DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava0-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1570 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1558

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	51%	28%	22%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.4	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +2’	1.70	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 2–2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-0 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
17/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-2 HT 2-1	DFK Dainava
10/06/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-2 HT 2-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
14/06/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-3 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
03/10/19 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
16/05/19 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Transinvest II	3-1 W	4-3 W
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	4-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DFK Dainava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	6	W

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DFK Dainava win (52%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 52%, draw 26%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 23%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 2.53 goals (DFK Dainava 1.58 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 0.96), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.