Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/09, 17:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: FK BE1 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

FK BE11.97

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.91

1X2

62% 22% 17%

FK BE1 Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLWWW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

FK BE1 5–1–0 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-1FK BE1
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-4FK BE1
FK BE11-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK BE12-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-2FK BE1
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-1FK BE1

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1544 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1447

	FK BE1	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1544 vs 1447).
H2H favours FK BE1: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +16’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 5–1–0 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK BE1
05/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-4 HT 0-4	FK BE1
01/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
30/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
05/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 HT 0-1	FK BE1
08/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK BE1

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FC Hegelmann II	2-1 W	3-0 W
Lietava Jonava	0-2 L	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	1-3 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	3-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-2 L
FK Tauras	1-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

WLWWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLDLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (62%). Probabilities: FK BE1 62%, draw 22%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 17%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 2.88 goals (FK BE1 1.97 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.91), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.