Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 12/09, 14:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Minija

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

DFK Dainava0.96

FK Minija1.48

1X2

24% 27% 49%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDDLD

FK Minija 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 3–1–2 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija3-2DFK Dainava
FK Minija3-1DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava5-1FK Minija
FK Minija0-2DFK Dainava
FK Minija0-2DFK Dainava
FK Minija1-1DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1522 · FK Minija 1622

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	23%	29%	48%
Market	25%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1522 vs 1622).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.5	2.4 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	4.8 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +5’	3.60	3.50	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 3–1–2 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/26 Lithuania Cup	FK Minija	3-2 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
09/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-1 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
28/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	5-1 HT 4-1	FK Minija
23/04/22 Lithuania Cup	FK Minija	0-2 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
16/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-2 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
22/05/21 Lithuania Cup	FK Minija	1-1 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	23	13	2	8	30	28	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	23	12	4	7	37	31	40
7	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Minija
Lietava Jonava	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-0 W
BFA Vilnius	0-0 D	3-0 W
FK Transinvest II	3-1 W	3-0 W
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DFK Dainava

WWWWDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W

FK Minija

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (49%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 24%, draw 27%, FK Minija 49%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Minija?

The model expects 2.43 goals (DFK Dainava 0.96 · FK Minija 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.