Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 11/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Transinvest II vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: FK Transinvest II · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

FK Transinvest II1.88

FC Hegelmann II1.8

1X2

40% 24% 37%

FK Transinvest II Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Transinvest II 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLLL

FC Hegelmann II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Transinvest II 1–0 FC Hegelmann II (1 last)

FC Hegelmann II1-2FK Transinvest II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Transinvest II 1430 · FC Hegelmann II 1460

	FK Transinvest II	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Transinvest II	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.79 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +21’	2.25	3.75	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +41’	2.06	3.55	2.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Transinvest II 1–0–0 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Transinvest II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	23	13	2	8	30	28	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	23	12	4	7	37	31	40
7	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Transinvest II	FC Hegelmann II
FK Minija	0-3 L	0-4 L
Lietava Jonava	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-4 L	0-2 L
FK Atmosfera	2-0 W	1-4 L
FK Garliava	0-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Transinvest II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Transinvest II

LLDLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
29/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
25/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	3-4	9	7	L
14/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
08/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
03/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
28/07	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
20/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
27/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
19/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

FC Hegelmann II

WLLLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Transinvest II vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Transinvest II win (40%). Probabilities: FK Transinvest II 40%, draw 24%, FC Hegelmann II 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Transinvest II vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.68 goals (FK Transinvest II 1.88 · FC Hegelmann II 1.8), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Transinvest II vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.