Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 11/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Babrungas · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

FK Babrungas1.73

FK Atmosfera0.91

1X2

56% 25% 19%

FK Babrungas Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWDWL

FK Atmosfera 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLDLW

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 3–3–0 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera1-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas3-0FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas0-0FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas7-1FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1570 · FK Atmosfera 1466

	FK Babrungas	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	56%	26%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1570 vs 1466).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.84
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.90 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +21’	1.57	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +41’	1.51	3.84	4.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 3–3–0 FK Atmosfera

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Babrungas
19/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
17/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
08/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
21/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
10/07/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	7-1 HT 3-0	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	23	13	2	8	30	28	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	23	12	4	7	37	31	40
7	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	FK Atmosfera
FK Tauras	1-1 D	3-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	4-0 W	1-3 L
DFK Dainava	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	0-2 L
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	1-3 L
FK Siauliai II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

DWWWWLWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

FK Atmosfera

LWLWLDLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Babrungas win (56%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 56%, draw 25%, FK Atmosfera 19%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.64 goals (FK Babrungas 1.73 · FK Atmosfera 0.91), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.