Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: FK Tauras vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: FK Tauras · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

FK Tauras1.98

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.02

1X2

59% 23% 18%

FK Tauras Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tauras 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWDDL

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Tauras 3–2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-2FK Tauras
FK Tauras1-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-2FK Tauras
FK Tauras5-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-2FK Tauras
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II12-0FK Tauras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tauras 1529 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1574

	FK Tauras	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (rating 1529 vs 1574).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tauras	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +1’	1.50	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tauras 3–2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
09/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
04/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
19/09/17 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	5-1 HT 3-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
19/05/17 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 HT 1-2	FK Tauras
07/10/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	12-0 HT 6-0	FK Tauras

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	23	13	2	8	30	28	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	23	12	4	7	37	31	40
7	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tauras	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	1-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	4-2 W	2-1 W
FK Siauliai II	3-1 W	4-1 W
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tauras

WWWWDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
28/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	1	W
27/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	2	W

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

LWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tauras vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Tauras win (59%). Probabilities: FK Tauras 59%, draw 23%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 18%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tauras vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 3 goals (FK Tauras 1.98 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tauras vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.