Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 20/09, 14:00

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0.96

FK Babrungas1.7

1X2

21% 25% 54%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWW

FK Babrungas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDWLW

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–1–4 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Babrungas2-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-2FK Babrungas
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas2-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Babrungas1-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1596 · FK Babrungas 1577

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	20%	26%	54%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Babrungas: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.59 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	1.85 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +6’	3.30	3.60	1.85
02:32 +10’	3.90▲	3.75▲	1.67▼
10:05 +4’	4.10▲	3.80▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +26’	4.59	3.74	1.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–1–4 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
25/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
16/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
12/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Babrungas
23/03/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
12/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Babrungas
FK Tauras	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 W	4-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Transinvest II	4-3 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	4-1 W	1-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Ekranas	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	4	W

FK Babrungas

WWWWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (54%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 21%, draw 25%, FK Babrungas 54%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.66 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 0.96 · FK Babrungas 1.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.