Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 18/09, 18:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · FK Tauras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Lietava Jonava1.03

FK Tauras1.38

1X2

28% 27% 45%

Lietava Jonava Draw FK Tauras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FK Tauras 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 3–3 FK Tauras (6 last)

FK Tauras2-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-3FK Tauras
Lietava Jonava1-0FK Tauras
FK Tauras2-0Lietava Jonava
FK Tauras0-11Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava9-0FK Tauras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1455 · FK Tauras 1527

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	FK Tauras
Our model	27%	30%	44%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Tauras (rating 1455 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	FK Tauras
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	1.95 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +28’	3.10	3.60	1.95
13:59 +5’	4.50▲	3.80▲	1.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 3–0–3 FK Tauras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
15/02/26 Club Friendly List	Lietava Jonava	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Tauras
20/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Tauras
17/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
17/10/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	0-11 HT 0-5	Lietava Jonava
24/06/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	9-0 HT 4-0	FK Tauras

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	23	20	1	2	61	12	61
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	23	15	2	6	41	24	47
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	24	14	2	8	32	28	44
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
6	BFA Vilnius	24	13	3	8	38	34	42
7	FK Tauras	24	12	4	8	40	29	40
8	DFK Dainava	23	10	7	6	33	23	37
9	FK Atmosfera	23	8	5	10	36	32	29
10	Lietava Jonava	24	7	6	11	26	30	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	24	7	1	16	30	55	22
12	FK Garliava	23	6	4	13	25	27	22
13	FK Transinvest II	24	6	3	15	28	56	21
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	23	6	1	16	20	36	19
15	FK Ekranas	24	4	2	18	23	52	14
16	FK Siauliai II	24	3	5	16	21	54	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	FK Tauras
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	0-2 L
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	1-1 D
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	3-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 L	4-2 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Tauras (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L

FK Tauras

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
05/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
28/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Tauras win (45%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 28%, draw 27%, FK Tauras 45%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.03 · FK Tauras 1.38), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.