Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: FK Atmosfera · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

FK Atmosfera1.79

BFA Vilnius1.5

1X2

44% 24% 32%

FK Atmosfera Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atmosfera 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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BFA Vilnius 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Atmosfera 3–2–1 BFA Vilnius (6 last)

BFA Vilnius0-5FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera2-2BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius1-0FK Atmosfera
BFA Vilnius0-2FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-1BFA Vilnius
FK Atmosfera6-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1482 · BFA Vilnius 1559

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1482 vs 1559).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:36 +8’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 3–2–1 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-5 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera
09/11/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-2 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
28/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
13/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera
25/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 1-1	BFA Vilnius
07/05/24 Lithuania Cup	FK Atmosfera	6-0 HT 2-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	23	20	1	2	61	12	61
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	23	15	2	6	41	24	47
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	24	14	2	8	32	28	44
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
6	BFA Vilnius	24	13	3	8	38	34	42
7	FK Tauras	24	12	4	8	40	29	40
8	DFK Dainava	23	10	7	6	33	23	37
9	FK Atmosfera	23	8	5	10	36	32	29
10	Lietava Jonava	24	7	6	11	26	30	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	24	7	1	16	30	55	22
12	FK Garliava	23	6	4	13	25	27	22
13	FK Transinvest II	24	6	3	15	28	56	21
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	23	6	1	16	20	36	19
15	FK Ekranas	24	4	2	18	23	52	14
16	FK Siauliai II	24	3	5	16	21	54	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	BFA Vilnius
FK Babrungas	2-3 L	2-1 W
FK Tauras	3-1 W	2-2 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 L	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Transinvest II	0-2 L	4-2 W
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK BE1	0-1 L	3-1 W
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Atmosfera

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atmosfera win (44%). Probabilities: FK Atmosfera 44%, draw 24%, BFA Vilnius 32%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 3.29 goals (FK Atmosfera 1.79 · BFA Vilnius 1.5), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.