Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Garliava

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris II · FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.2

FK Garliava1.47

1X2

30% 27% 43%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWWLW

FK Garliava 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1–3–2 FK Garliava (6 last)

FK Garliava3-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Garliava5-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Garliava0-4FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-2FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-2FK Garliava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1472 · FK Garliava 1419

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris II (rating 1472 vs 1419).
H2H favours FK Garliava: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +36’	2.88	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1–3–2 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
07/03/26 Club Friendly List	FK Garliava	5-1 HT 3-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
08/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-4 HT 0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
21/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-2 HT 2-0	FK Garliava
13/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
29/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Garliava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	23	20	1	2	61	12	61
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	23	15	2	6	41	24	47
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	24	14	2	8	32	28	44
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
6	BFA Vilnius	24	13	3	8	38	34	42
7	FK Tauras	24	12	4	8	40	29	40
8	DFK Dainava	23	10	7	6	33	23	37
9	FK Atmosfera	23	8	5	10	36	32	29
10	Lietava Jonava	24	7	6	11	26	30	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	24	7	1	16	30	55	22
12	FK Garliava	23	6	4	13	25	27	22
13	FK Transinvest II	24	6	3	15	28	56	21
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	23	6	1	16	20	36	19
15	FK Ekranas	24	4	2	18	23	52	14
16	FK Siauliai II	24	3	5	16	21	54	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Garliava
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK BE1	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Hegelmann II	3-0 W	1-3 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-4 L	0-1 L
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	0-1 L
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

DLLLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

FK Garliava

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Garliava win (43%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 30%, draw 27%, FK Garliava 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 2.67 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.2 · FK Garliava 1.47), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.