Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FK Minija2.03

FK Neptunas Klaipeda0.89

1X2

63% 21% 15%

FK Minija Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Minija 3–2–1 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-3FK Minija
FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-1FK Minija
FK Minija0-4FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-1FK Minija
FK Minija2-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Minija2-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1629 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1503

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1629 vs 1503).
H2H favours FK Minija: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 8.2	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +9’	1.40	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 3–2–1 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Minija
27/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
15/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
20/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Minija
03/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
12/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	23	20	1	2	61	12	61
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	23	15	2	6	41	24	47
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	24	14	2	8	32	28	44
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
6	BFA Vilnius	24	13	3	8	38	34	42
7	FK Tauras	24	12	4	8	40	29	40
8	DFK Dainava	23	10	7	6	33	23	37
9	FK Atmosfera	23	8	5	10	36	32	29
10	Lietava Jonava	24	7	6	11	26	30	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	24	7	1	16	30	55	22
12	FK Garliava	23	6	4	13	25	27	22
13	FK Transinvest II	24	6	3	15	28	56	21
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	23	6	1	16	20	36	19
15	FK Ekranas	24	4	2	18	23	52	14
16	FK Siauliai II	24	3	5	16	21	54	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
DFK Dainava	3-0 W	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	2-2 D
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	0-1 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

LDWWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (63%). Probabilities: FK Minija 63%, draw 21%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FK Minija 2.03 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.