Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 11/09, 16:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava

Team pages: FK Neptunas Klaipeda · Lietava Jonava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.41

Lietava Jonava0.95

1X2

47% 28% 25%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw Lietava Jonava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLLWL

Lietava Jonava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLWD

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–2 Lietava Jonava (6 last)

Lietava Jonava0-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Lietava Jonava0-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-2Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava2-5FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0Lietava Jonava
FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-2Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1520 · Lietava Jonava 1481

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	Lietava Jonava
Our model	46%	30%	24%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Lietava Jonava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.2 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +20’	1.85	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +40’	1.82	3.30	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–0–2 Lietava Jonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
30/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
03/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 HT 0-2	Lietava Jonava
08/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	2-5 HT 1-2	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
30/06/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
04/08/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	23	13	2	8	30	28	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	23	12	4	7	37	31	40
7	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Lietava Jonava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	2-1 W
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lietava Jonava (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WLDWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W

Lietava Jonava

WLLWWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (47%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 47%, draw 28%, Lietava Jonava 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava?

The model expects 2.36 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.41 · Lietava Jonava 0.95), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.