Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 18/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

FC Hegelmann II1.2

DFK Dainava2.05

1X2

21% 22% 57%

FC Hegelmann II Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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DFK Dainava 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 0–1 DFK Dainava (1 last)

DFK Dainava3-2FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1446 · DFK Dainava 1503

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	21%	23%	56%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1446 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +7’	4.10	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 0–0–1 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	23	20	1	2	61	12	61
2	FK Babrungas	24	18	4	2	42	11	58
3	FK BE1	23	15	2	6	41	24	47
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	24	14	2	8	32	28	44
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	24	13	4	7	38	31	43
6	BFA Vilnius	24	13	3	8	38	34	42
7	FK Tauras	24	12	4	8	40	29	40
8	DFK Dainava	23	10	7	6	33	23	37
9	FK Atmosfera	23	8	5	10	36	32	29
10	Lietava Jonava	24	7	6	11	26	30	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	24	7	1	16	30	55	22
12	FK Garliava	23	6	4	13	25	27	22
13	FK Transinvest II	24	6	3	15	28	56	21
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	23	6	1	16	20	36	19
15	FK Ekranas	24	4	2	18	23	52	14
16	FK Siauliai II	24	3	5	16	21	54	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	DFK Dainava
FK Transinvest II	1-4 L	3-1 W
FK Siauliai II	5-1 W	5-0 W
FK Minija	0-4 L	0-3 L
FK Atmosfera	1-4 L	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	4	L

DFK Dainava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an DFK Dainava win (57%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 21%, draw 22%, DFK Dainava 57%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 3.25 goals (FC Hegelmann II 1.2 · DFK Dainava 2.05), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.