Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 09/10, 16:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FK BE1 · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

FK BE11.46

DFK Dainava1.06

1X2

46% 27% 27%

FK BE1 Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWW

DFK Dainava 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLDLWL

Head-to-head

FK BE1 1–2–0 DFK Dainava (3 last)

DFK Dainava1-2FK BE1
DFK Dainava1-1FK BE1
FK BE11-1DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1558 · DFK Dainava 1471

	FK BE1	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1558 vs 1471).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:03 +4’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 1–2–0 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	1-2 HT 0-1	FK BE1
10/07/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	1-1 HT 1-1	FK BE1
20/03/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-1 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	DFK Dainava
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Garliava	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Hegelmann II	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Minija	0-3 L	0-3 L
Lietava Jonava	0-2 L	0-0 D
BFA Vilnius	1-3 L	0-0 D
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

WLLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
14/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W

DFK Dainava

WDWDDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (46%). Probabilities: FK BE1 46%, draw 27%, DFK Dainava 27%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 2.52 goals (FK BE1 1.46 · DFK Dainava 1.06), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.