Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

FK Minija1.78

FK Babrungas0.85

1X2

59% 24% 17%

FK Minija Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWW

FK Babrungas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Minija 0–1–5 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas1-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-4FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas0-0FK Minija
FK Minija1-3FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1590 · FK Babrungas 1580

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-1-0.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.4	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.3 / 8.6	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	3.70 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:13 +3’	1.73	3.70	3.80
13:32 +6’	1.50▼	4.00▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 0–1–5 FK Babrungas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Minija
22/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
08/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
14/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Babrungas
26/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
04/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-3 HT 1-2	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68	13	67
2	FK Babrungas	26	20	4	2	45	11	64
3	FK BE1	25	16	3	6	45	27	51
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	26	14	4	8	40	33	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	26	14	2	10	33	31	44
6	BFA Vilnius	26	13	4	9	40	37	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	26	11	8	7	37	27	41
9	FK Atmosfera	25	8	7	10	37	33	31
10	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
11	Lietava Jonava	26	7	6	13	28	35	27
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	26	7	2	17	26	46	23
13	FK Transinvest II	26	6	4	16	30	59	22
14	FC Hegelmann II	26	7	1	18	28	58	22
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	26	4	3	19	26	59	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Babrungas
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 W	4-0 W
DFK Dainava	3-0 W	1-2 L
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	5-0 W	2-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	1-0 W
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

WLWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W

FK Babrungas

WWLWDWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (59%). Probabilities: FK Minija 59%, draw 24%, FK Babrungas 17%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.64 goals (FK Minija 1.78 · FK Babrungas 0.85), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.