Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FK Siauliai II1.36

FK Garliava1.57

1X2

33% 25% 42%

FK Siauliai II Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLLWD

FK Garliava 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWD

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 1–3–2 FK Garliava (6 last)

FK Garliava1-1FK Siauliai II
FK Garliava2-4FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-0FK Garliava
FK Siauliai II3-3FK Garliava
FK Garliava3-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-3FK Garliava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1478 · FK Garliava 1419

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Siauliai II (rating 1478 vs 1419).
H2H favours FK Garliava: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.30 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:27 +2’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +9’	3.06	3.48	1.96
11:13 +41’	3.30▲	3.56▲	1.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 1–3–2 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai II
02/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-4 HT 2-2	FK Siauliai II
09/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
07/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	3-3 HT 1-1	FK Garliava
20/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II
09/07/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Garliava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
11	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	FK Garliava
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	3-3 D	2-3 L
FK Ekranas	6-2 W	0-1 L
FK BE1	0-2 L	0-2 L
Lietava Jonava	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	0-0 D
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Siauliai II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai II

LWDLWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	1	3	D
19/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	6-2	7	9	W
14/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-5	3	2	L
28/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L

FK Garliava

LLLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Garliava win (42%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 33%, draw 25%, FK Garliava 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FK Siauliai II 1.36 · FK Garliava 1.57), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.