Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 16/10, 18:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Lietava Jonava1.32

BFA Vilnius1.24

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Lietava Jonava Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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BFA Vilnius 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 1–1–4 BFA Vilnius (6 last)

BFA Vilnius1-0Lietava Jonava
BFA Vilnius0-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-1BFA Vilnius
Lietava Jonava0-3BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius2-1Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava6-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1451 · BFA Vilnius 1543

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	37%	29%	33%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1451 vs 1543).
H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +6’	2.25	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 1–1–4 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
26/07/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-0 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
15/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-1 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
07/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-3 HT 0-1	BFA Vilnius
21/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	2-1 HT 1-0	Lietava Jonava
27/08/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	6-0 HT 2-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68	13	67
2	FK Babrungas	26	20	4	2	45	11	64
3	FK BE1	25	16	3	6	45	27	51
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	26	14	4	8	40	33	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	26	14	2	10	33	31	44
6	BFA Vilnius	26	13	4	9	40	37	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	26	11	8	7	37	27	41
9	FK Atmosfera	25	8	7	10	37	33	31
10	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
11	Lietava Jonava	26	7	6	13	28	35	27
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	26	7	2	17	26	46	23
13	FK Transinvest II	26	6	4	16	30	59	22
14	FC Hegelmann II	26	7	1	18	28	58	22
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	26	4	3	19	26	59	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	BFA Vilnius
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Tauras	2-3 L	2-2 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	0-0 D
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	4-2 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK BE1	2-0 W	3-1 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

BFA Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
19/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lietava Jonava win (39%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 39%, draw 26%, BFA Vilnius 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.32 · BFA Vilnius 1.24), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.